Methodology

 

The present study proposes to adopt a multidisciplinary approach to study the above issues. 


Objective 1

The responses to climate change will be studied through the research work –available at public domain- available at the national and sub national level. Based on the existing literature, the major climate change impacts to various resources will be identified.  An attempt will be made to identify a region specific impact indicator(s) for each of the resource. The study will also examine the probability of using these indicators to assess the impacts in other regions as well as other resources. The objective will be met based on the published data/information and also examining the results using statistical techniques.

 

Objective 2

The rainfall and temperature pattern will be analyzed based on the daily / monthly data available for the meteorological stations of Lakshadweep.  The data will be analyzed to find the percentage departures from the normal, frequency of positive and negative departures and the general trend in climatological variables. Isolines will be prepared in spatial domain to study the temporal variations pertaining to rainfall, temperature and evaporation.  A trend analysis will be carried out to understand the interval of the extreme events.

 

The decadal changes in ground water level will be studied based on the observation well data. The water potential will be estimated based on the Ghyben-Herzberg relation and pump testing. The Burn’s rule will be utilized in the available data to estimate the impact of sea level rise on ground water aquifer system of the inhabited atolls of the Lakshadweep islands. The ground water quality changes, specifically salinity, chlorinity, specific conductivity etc. will analysed to assess saline water incursion. Hydrogeochemical model will be used to assess the saline-fresh water mixing ratio. This will enable to determine the extent of the impact.

 

Objective 3

Corals build their hard skeltons from calcium carbonate a mineral extracted from sea water.  The carbonate contains isotopes of oxygen, as well as trace metals that can be used to determine the temperature of water in which the coral grew.  These temperature recordings can then be used to reconstruct climate when the coral lived.  Similarly the C isotope studies will help us to delineate the sources of C in the past as well as the climatic control over it.

 

Many tons of sediment accumulates in the coastal and ocean basins each year.  Sediment sample will be collected through drilling by cores. The sediment consists of tiny fossils that are used to interpret past climates.  The rate of sediment accumulation will be estimated using Pb210 , Cs 137 methods etc.  The primary paleocimatic proxy data will be collected utilizing above mentioned methods.  The above data includes reconstructions of past temperature, precipitation, vegetation, stream flow, sea surface temperature and other climatic or climate dependent conditions.   

 

Objective 4

The toposheets of the study area, satellite remote sensing data along with the ground truth verification will provide the latest map of the inhabited atolls of Lakshadweep.  Global Position System (GPS) will be used in differential mode to collect height at different atolls and also to map the coastline. The average and high water line positions and their seasonal fluctuations will be mapped using GPS. The results will be compared with the locations of shallow aquifer systems to map the vulnerable regions.

 

Objective 5

The livelihood implications will be studied considering availability and demand of fresh water resources for the household and other uses at the current level of development. Future demand for water will be assessed based on the pattern of population and economic growth of the region. The climate change and population growth scenarios will be considered for the analysis of its implications on available water resource and thus the sustenance of island ecosystem. A water demand (different uses) and supply analysis (both fresh surface and ground water) will be carried out to assess whether any gap exist under business as usual scenario and also under the climate change scenario.

 

Objective  6

Web enabled database application system will be developed using latest web technology.  The system developed shall be robust and secured. The design aspects will also cover the issues like scalability to accommodate the growing scope of data that will be captured or generated in future.  This shall be hosted in NISCAIR premises.  The NISCAIR already has well equipped IT setup like 2MBPS 1:1 dedicated leased line connectively for internet access including necessary networking and hardware equipments.  These facilities can be utilized for the system under consideration.   The following additional components are to be procured for the purpose.  (i) Hardware (web server, database server, backup server) (ii) Software (Database server like oracle,  OS Linux/Windows, industry standard Web application development tools.

 

Objective 7

The Eco-system based Management (EBM) approaches to natural resources management along with Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) will be utilized to develop a frame work and decision support tool to assess the impacts on natural resources and socio- economic variables due to climate change. The baseline and monitoring data of ecological and socioeconomic components of the ecosystem acquired through above objectives (objectives 1-5) will form the basic component for implementing the EBM and ICM.  This will be done with taking into account the present ecosystem knowledge and uncertainties.  Precautionary approach will be applied where predictive ability is limited.  It will be done with participation of all relevant stake holders and scientific disciplines.  The EBM will be decentralized to the lowest level.   The ICM consists of a multidisciplinary system that will recognize the interconnections between coastal systems and uses. The ICM will enumerate a procedure for protection of valuable ecosystems and development of coast dependent economics.   It will set priorities for uses.

 

Objective 8

To prepare guidelines for developmental planning with the assistance of integration of climate information, the tools viz Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and the Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) , that had been effectively utilized by the global ocean community, to adapt to changing environmental conditions  will be utilized.  The guideline will consist of the following steps viz. problem diagnosis, project design, implementation and evaluation.    It is a well recognized fact that the most difficult part of adapting to climate change will be gathering data about climate change for a specific location and interpreting that data to understand possible impacts on a development activity.   The data collected through above objectives (objective 1-5) will be utilized to prepare the guidelines.   

 

Objective 9

Based on the existing literature and Lakshadweep case study possible impacts on various types of resources will be known.  The extent and degree of impact will be assessed to determine the possible adaptation and mitigation options. These scenarios will be used to formulate methodologies for developing capacity. The methodologies will be formulated for developing capacity of all the stakeholders, namely community, stakeholder departments and private sector.

 

Data Source

The published data on climatic studies will be collected from various organizations and databases.  The information related to natural resources will be collected from Central Water Commission, Central Ground Water Board, Survey of India and Central Public Works Department. The information published in the primary scientific journals like Indian Journal of Marine Sciences, Current Science etc will be utilised for preparing the climate change related data base The data base will be mainly based on published information  in peer – reviewed research papers, on observed changes in natural systems

 

Organization of work

The present project will be executed through NISCAIR, and School of Environmental Sciences and School of Social Sciences of Jawaharlal Nehru University.  The project will be executed in close coordination with Lakshadweep administration and Department of Science and Technology Cell at Lakshadweep.

The national seminars on climate change on Coastal ecosystem will be organized under the auspicious of Indian Journal of Marine Sciences.  The above seminar will act as the problem diagnosis of the network.